The age of VUCA is a lie. What Japanese companies should do now has been decided. Rather Just Do It!

■ VUCA is originally a military term

VUCA is a word that was originally born as a military term, and is an acronym for "Volatility", "Uncertainty", "Complexity", and "Ambiguity". It's arranged.

In the pre-Cold War era, wars were straightforward, with nations on the ground carrying out operations created by the General Staff.

However, after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, we had to wage a war where we didn't know who the enemy was, who was at the top, or who would win or lose. It seems that such a state came to be called VUCA.

Since around 2010, it has been used in business like the "VUCA era".

■ It's always "a time of rapid change"

The biggest thing that happened in the business world about 10 years ago was the so-called "Lehman shock" that occurred when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt on September 15, 2008.

However, before that, there were also the “bubble burst” in which the stock price crashed for several years from 1990, and the “IT bubble burst” from the end of 2000.

Also, if you look at an older era, Japan in the 1960s had an annual average economic growth rate of over 10%, achieving rapid economic growth that was unprecedented in other countries. When I look back, I think, "Wow, it was always a time of drastic change, wasn't it?"

If you are now in the "era of stagnation"

Conversely, if we compare it with the past, perhaps we can say that we are in an era of stagnation, or an era of no change.

The Nikkei average fluctuates between 10,000 yen and 25,000 yen (NY Dow has been rising for more than 100 years), and according to the National Tax Agency's private salary survey, the average of Japanese people Salaries are about the same as they were 10 years ago.

Even GDP (nominal) has been hovering over 500 trillion yen for 10 years and has hardly changed (China doubled in 10 years). The inflation rate has been around 0% for a long time, and prices have hardly changed since 1995.

It's not a story based only on money, but some people may think, "Where is the era of rapid change?"

■Feeling that the boss's generation has caused "stagnation"

Certainly, if you look at the world, it is a situation that can be said to be VUCA. However, if we look only at Japan, the change will be gradual as mentioned above.

However, if middle-aged and older bosses say things like, "Now is VUCA," or "It's an era of rapid change," young people might wonder, "What are you talking about?"

I'm tempted to say, "Isn't your generation responsible for this stagnation?"

In addition, as a method suitable for VUCA, which was originally a military term, the action cycle devised by American military researcher John Boyd is OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide). decision-making, Act).

Sorry for writing this before. I'll leave the formal details to someone else, but my understanding is that the point is to make decisions based on the site and move quickly and flexibly according to the situation.

In other words, if your boss says VUCA, at the same time, you have to say, "Everyone on site, please think and act on your own."

You can't just follow my instructions and don't miss reporting (PDCA).

■ Missing the word "I take responsibility"

Furthermore, if you want that kind of delegation to the field and let it move freely, there are words that must be said. That is "I take responsibility".

This is also the word that Grand Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka said to bureaucrats when he took office as Minister of Finance (now Minister of Finance).

He said, ``You guys are the best in the world, come and tell me anything you think.I will do what I can. It seems that the bureaucrats of the Ministry of Finance at the time were fascinated by it.

Without this ``I take responsibility,'' no matter how much freedom you give them, the members will only see it as ``abandonment of responsibility''.

Now, this is my personal opinion as an amateur, but I think that Japan is now in an era where it is clear what to do from there because it has fallen to the point of falling rather than VUCA. I am thinking.

VUCA is what you say when you're getting close to the top of the world, like Japan used to be, and you don't know what to do. There are many countries and companies that are losing, in other words, there are many countries and companies that can serve as models.

I know what to do. Therefore, when I hear VUCA, I can't help but think, "Where is it going?"

I think what Japan needs now is the famous Nike slogan, “Just Do It.”

*I am writing a series about management of young people in OCEANS. Also check this.