The reason why the general election of the House of Representatives is boring as a "game"

　Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has dissolved the lower house on the 14th and announced that the general election schedule will be announced on the 19th and voting on the 31st.10 days after his inauguration (4 days), the announcement started 5 days later.Moreover, it is a short time of 17 days, the shortest ever until the voting date.

　In recent years, the turnout of national election has been considered a problem.There are various reasons, but when you consider the election as a serious game that you can win or lose, there are many elements that become "boring", and this time I will think about it.

　The details of "boring reasons" are "boring", so I will keep them in the text.

No door -to -door visit or convenience store lunch

　This 17th is too short.It is the shortest after the war.However, except for that, it must be pointed out that the "public announcement" system itself is rare in the world.

　The Public Office Election Law will be applied after this day.This is a ganjigame, "I will visit the door to call for a voting" "I will provide food and drinks excluding the sweets that can be used as usual" (so also a convenience store lunch box) "× convenience store lunch box)" From 8:00 pm to 8:00 am the next day.A street speech for the election campaign at other times (the voice is OK) is all out.Furthermore, the media will keep fair reports in fair reports, as well as the law itself and mutatis mutandis.Equivalent to the broadcast time and paper width.In short, "let's do it with" is basically useless.

Ston and turnout after the introduction of the constituency system

　The current "small constituency proportional representative parallel" has been from the 1996 election.Until then, except for the first after the war (46 years), it was a constituency system (about three to five in one constituency).The small constituency system is "choose one person in one constituency."

　At the time of the middle constituency, the turnout was high, and at the lowest 60 % of the box zone, it was in the latter half of 60 %.In 1996, Ston and 60 % were interrupted and recorded the lowest after the war.The record was also repainted in 2012 and 2014.

　The Koizumi Postal Elections in 2005 and the 2009 "Advanced Elections" rose to the latter half of 60 %.Nevertheless, it is only equivalent to the lower box in the middle constituency.In other words, the phase changed to the "at least 60 % in the latter half of 60 %" after 1996.

A small constituency system is a system where popular people are absent

　The most interesting games of the middle constituencies include "a moderately famous candidate = there is a popular person" and "the wish of the anti -layer is to some extent."

　First, from the "popular person".At present, about 300 small constituencies are about 300, and about 500 in the middle constituency have been selected in about 130 wards.Assuming that the popular people are about 10 % of the winners, let's say they are standing from the constituency evenly.In a small constituency, the probability of standing in one ward is 10 %, and in the middle constituency is about 30 to 40 %.In other words, the probability of not being popular in the constituencies in which voters are throwing one vote is about 90 % in small constituencies and about 60 % in the middle constituency.It is no exaggeration to say that "a small constituency system is a system where popular people are absent."

　That's where the "anti -layer wish is fulfilled".If there is only one constituency, if there is a definitive candidate, the person will not support the person = the anti -layer will give up saying, "I can't help going."However, in the middle constituency, no matter how strong a candidate is, it is only one of the "three to five", so even the anti -class can give one vote to win the hostile candidate.

In the proportional ward

　If you say this, there is a rebuttal that "No, small constituencies are thrilling."Since all of them are the finals of "win or lose", they converge into two leading candidates, and in the situation of time, the minority forces turned black and white like Othello games, and the dramatic ending of government change.If you can expect it.Certainly, in the 2009 general election, the opposition Democratic Party has won more than 60 % and drives the LDP, which has continued to be the ruling party except for just one time, to the field.

　However, the result is only once under the past eight constituency systems.Others account for the majority of the LDP, mainly for the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party alone has greatly exceeded the majority.

　It is easy to conclude that "non -LDP is too weak", but as a factor that happens as a game, the "proportional representative parallel system" is attached not to the "simple small constituency system".。The middle constituencies were all decided by "that only".

　In this proportional ward, the atmosphere of "election of duplicate candidates" is linked ( * Note 1).In short, the "lost but won = win" system.It's a game.

　In fact, the revival group in 1996, which was implemented for the first time, said, "I was revived from the graveyard," "as if it were an elevator," and "I can't feel like I'm going to do it very much."After the election, 70 % of the public polls answered, "Is the overlapping candidate good?"

Young people did not go to vote at all times

　The reason for the decline tends to be said to be a young man's political separation.But this is only half.Looking at the voters of the past general elections by age, the youngest ( * 2) is always the lowest.This is the "hit" part.The only thing that has come off is that this trend has been going on since the 60's.In other words, it was the lowest rank when the 50s were in their 20s.In other words, the tone of "recent young people" does not hit.If the reason for the decline is that young people are separated from politics, young people at that time are far from politics.

Small constituency for the Upper House election

　This time, I will look at the Upper House normal election.The "small constituency proportional representative" is only the lower house, so if this system is a boring "Honboshi", it should not be affected.However, the turnout has declined in the upper house since the same time as the lower house ( * Note 3).

　The causes seem to be presumed in various ways.It may be the cause of the esoteric extreme system ( * Note 4), such as the "non -detention list" or "specific frame" of the proportional ward.

　"Small constituency in the Upper House constituency" is also presumed to be a major factor.In principle, the upper house is a constituency ( * 5).In the 1990s, the "small constituency" in the one -sided seat was about 25, and the two seats were opposed to about 18.After that, the number of "small constituencies" increased, and in 19 years it was 32.On the other hand, the number of seats for the second recipient has decreased to 4.

　The reason is correction of one vote disparity.The purpose itself is correct, but it accounts for about 70 % of 45 constituencies ( * 5) in 47 prefectures.Many change from "2 to 1".If the representative of our prefecture is reduced, the morale will not increase.

　Many of the two wards usually shared the ruling and opposition parties.There was a place for anti -votes where two people did not support candidates that the dominance did not support candidates, just like the lower house.In both ruling and opposition parties, the ruling and opposition parties were difficult to win (2 wins), so they were the driving force to get along with the overall results, but that is about to disappear.

Local elections about 1000 times a year

　Non -national chiefs (governors and municipalities) and parliamentary elections should have been decided all at once in the unified regional election.However, the unification rate decreased to the 27 % range as a result of the lack of a unified election due to the lack of a unified election due to the "Great Merger of Heisei" during the term of the term.Now it is an election somewhere on Sunday.

　Still, it is clear if you choose one chief.The problem is the parliamentary election, about six in towns and villages with a small population, and 50 in Setagaya Ward.The number of municipalities is over 1700, and the prefectural assembly is about 30,000.Such a thing is chosen somewhere every week.The constants vary from "1" (Chiyoda -ku, Tokyo) to 50 people.The regional election in 2021 was about 1000 (including supplementary selections and plans).Nearly 50 local elections overlap with the general election on the 31st.In fact, Japan is a country with only elections.Moreover, the system is different.It is natural to get tired.

* Note 1: In the list of political parties, there is a duplicate candidate with the constituency, so it can be arranged in the same ranking.The proportional vote is invested by the political party name, and the number of seats acquired by each party is determined by the don type.The order of winning in the same ranking is a highly defeated in the small constituency.

* Note 2:18 The only voting for voting rights was excluded this time because only the recent 17 -year general election was voted.

* Note 3: From the first to 1989 after the war, the width of the lower house was larger than the lower house, but it was 70 %, and in the late 50 % of it was 50 in 1992..72 %, 44 in 2001.52 % and continuous updates ever.After that, it was sluggish to the 50 % range, and in 19 years it fell to the 40 % range again.

* Note 4: "Non -detention list" was introduced in 2001.In 2019, a "specific frame" will be added.

* Note 5: "Tottori / Shimane" and "Tokushima / Kochi", which are spans in the prefecture from 2016, have the same constituency.